Balkanizer

War Fears

November 16th, 2007 by vanja

European media are finally catching on the seriousness of the situation in Bosnia. Financial Times reports that Bosnians are fearing renewed war; they are stockpiling on basic food supplies, which has resulted in dramatic price increases (cooking oil, flour and sugar).

Last week, New York Times editorial also warned about the crisis in Bosnia. When Bosnia turns up on the NYT editorial page, things are not good.

Talking to people, listening to radio shows and watching TV programs where public calls in and comments on various topics, it has become quite obvious that everyone expects the International Community to step in and reassure the public that there will be no conflict. Unfortunately, such reassurances are hard to come by. EUFOR commander commented recently that his troops are ready to respond in case of such an event, without giving any specifics. Bosnian Minister of Security, Tarik Sadovic, and NATO Commander, Gen. Wightman, stated that the curent security situation in country is stabile. NATO spokesperson said, commenting on a news article speculation that Bosnian-Serb seccession would be prevented with a large scale occupation of Republika Srpska, that occupation is out of the question because NATO and EUFOR troops were already in the country at the request of the local government. He further stated that the international peacekeeprs have various contingency plans.

Unfortunately, these comments have done very little to alay fears among the general public because Bosnians, regardless of ethnicity, do not see a clear way out of this crisis. The current political situation and international community’s vagueness on possible options (especially military options) irresistibly remind common Bosnians of the situation in early 1992.

I do not believe that there will be war in Bosnia like in the period between 1992-1995. However, as I statred in my other posts, I fear that the country may split up and that there could be residual violence against minority returnees, massive demonstrations, even open conflict in contentious places like Brcko and Mostar.

Tonight, I went food shopping in the local supermarket. I decided not to buy any oil - we rarely cook and almost never use cooking oil. However, after seeing an empty shell where hundreds of bottles of vegetable, soybean, corn and sunflower oil used to stand, I panicked, and picked up two liters of soybean oil directly from an unopened carton box that was sitting on the floor. Fear is contagious and, in the Balkans, it is very dangerous. International presence in Bosnia and their bosses in European capitals and Washington, DC must do much more to put peoples’ fears to rest. Otherwise, all of their other efforts may be overtaken by unwanted events.

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