TOL Belarus

No Imminent Anschluss

December 24th, 2007 by eolonir

While meeting with Putin, Lukashenka expressed surprise that Belarusian and Russian media used to sink in speculations on the form of the to-be-signed Unity Act. No one doubted that it will be signed in this or that form during this meeting. Whilst the background did not seem bright for both sides, Unity Act would have given Putin the National Hero and Leader image which he could rest on while being a no-President officially, whilst for Lukashenka it could have been a chance to make a new step in his political career.

However, the situation looks like Russia decided to buy loyalty with money by approving a 1500 million USD loan for Belarus which Lukashenka’s envoys tried to get for more than a year since the Belarus-Russia relations horizon seized to be so bright. It looks like a price to support any Russian politics in concern with the American anti-missile shield in Poland and the Czechs. In addition, Mr. Medvedev’s future government gets more influence on Belarus: by the year 2010, being completely dependent on Russia’s energy policy, Belarus will in addition be indebted. Whilst no reforms are going to be conducted by Lukashenka’s regime, an on-time return of the debt seems coming from some sci-fi book. Having failed to pay on - time. Lukashenka’s government might be forced into a greater loyalty, Anschluss, or transfer of strategic enterprises into hands of Russian pro-elite functionaries.

On the background of the Unity Act speculations having failed to come true, Lukashenka definitely gained on his Independence Defender image. However, his inability to make the next step sends unpromising signals to the Belarusian nation. Strangely enough, signing up the Unity Act would have shown his ability to take political risks. Having failed to make any other step except for begging for money, he sends a signal: there will be no reforms and no liberalization. Partly because this is a risk, and he failed to to take it by offering any constructive moves towards Russia’s propositions. Thus, all these money will be used to produce an impression that Mr. Lukashenka’s promises to the nation are being fulfilled, and without any economic impact.

Lukashenka had lost his dynamics by cleaning up the opposition field. However, he failed to understand, that in the modern world no nation can stay isolated. Even the USSR understood that they could not exist next to normal countries.

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