Steady State

The ‘Sanakoev Plan’ working out?

August 22nd, 2007 by jibs

IWPR takes us into Tskhinvali, the capital of the unrecognized South Ossetia to find out how the new pro-Georgian leader is viewed among the ethnic Ossetian population.

While soft power tactics of luring the Ossetian population to support the Sanakoev’s “temporary administration” are showing positive results, he is still far from gaining the full support from the Ossetians. For instance, this year, about a thousand Ossetians received free vocation coupons on the Black Seaside from the pro-Georgian administration. All the de facto leadership could do, was to threaten those who took advantage of the offer. Surely, sea, sun and cold beverages are way better than fixation on independence, spies and endless provocations in the conflict area.

The pro-Georgian administration is also working on the economic rehabilitation of the Georgian controlled region. Fun parks, movie theaters, restaurants, beer factories, etc. are being built very close to the conflict area. While this might not sound as a colossal achievement, on the background of the poverty in South Ossetia, such steps indeed represent at least a mirage of a normal life which the Ossetians, unfortunately, can only hope for.

Indeed, it seems the Georgian officials might be correct to a certain degree to claim that Kokoity is afraid of people crossing over to the Georgian side. All he can offer is yet another uncovered plot from the enemies of South Ossetia’s independence, upbeat readiness for warfare and predictions regarding the Kosovo’s independence setting the precedent for South Ossetia.

Some interesting reactions from Tskhinvali:

“Nowadays, there isn’t the strong ideological trend that existed in the early Nineties, straight after the war - everything is decided by money,” said a local man who was a combatant in the 1991-92 war which ended in South Ossetia declaring independent status. “And Dmitry Sanakoyev has a lot of money.”

Alan Chochiev, who led the South Ossetian civil rights movement Adamon Nykhas in 1989-92, is even more critical. “Kokoity’s only legitimacy derives from those people who are ready to die [for the cause of independence], but not for him. He’s merely become a figurehead for those who think his policies will take them to independence. But it isn’t true. His policies are leading them towards Georgia.”

Despite all this, “Sanakoev conflict-resolution project” still remains unclear: if Tbilisi sees Sanakoev as a better negotiation partner, the essential part of this plan would be the support from the ethnic Ossetians. Unfortunately, for many Sanakoev is a traitor who switched sides for personal gain.

“I knew a lot of people would call me a traitor,” says Sanakoev.

Judge for yourselves: he led the Adamon Nykhas and later served as the defense and prime minister of South Ossetia. Now he is on the Georgian side.

Moreover, Georgians seem to be satisfied with meeting Sanakoev and not Kokoity. It would be a mistake to disregard the existing conflict resolution mechanisms. As much as Georgia is at disadvantage in those talks (among the sides are South Ossetia, North Ossetia, Russia and Georgia), cutting all links with Kokoity can have negative results: this will give Kokoity extra ammunition to claim the Georgians do not want to resume peaceful negotiations.

Although, one-sided approach can work in case the Ossetians will simply trade their aspirations for peaceful lives.

“People are just tired,” said an elderly woman named Maria. “They are angry with Russia and with the local [South Ossetian] authorities. How much more can they feed us with promises that we will join Russia? The situation here is terrible, which is why people are looking for some alternative.

In fact, an arrangement that would not severe South Ossetia’s ties with North Ossetia, and guarantee ’special’ relations with Russia, might very well work out. Peace for compromise?

Technorati tags: South Ossetia, Sanakoyev, Kokoity, conflicts

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