Recent weeks have seen yet another string of accusations between the Georgians and the Abkhaz. Georgians claim that Russians are building up the forces in Abkhazia so as to finally annex its territory. The Abkhaz and Russians on the other hand claim that it is a regular rotation of the “peacekeeping” forces.
Georgians demanded the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG) investigate the build up of forces. An answer followed:
“the UN Observer Mission in Georgia (UNOMIG), which has been conducting daily verifications of these claims, has not been able to corroborate many so far.”
So there has been no build up, unless of course the tanks and combatants were hidden in the bushes, or external pressure was exerted on UNOMIG to deny such claims.
Interestingly, on the second day of the state of emergency in Georgia on November 8, the main story of the day was precisely the “Abkhaz issue” and not the dispersal of the demonstrations, or closing of the Imedi TV. Diverting attention?
US responds to Russia’s threats to recognize Abkhazia in case Kosovo gains independence.
“We don’t even talk about Chechnya, Kabardino-Balkaria, Daghestan and North Ossetia. The recognition of the separatists regions, on the territory of Georgia, by the Russian Federation will tune into the major Caucasian problem.” said Matthew Bryza, Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for European and Eurasian Affairs.
You don’t hear everyday the US diplomat so openly suggesting that parts of Russia could also qualify for the Kosovo precedent.
Strangely, the Speaker of Abkhazia’s Parliament Nugzar Ashuba backs Saakashvili for Presidency of Georgia. “In fact I am normally disposed to Saakashvili as a President” he told gzt.ru. He thinks that other candidates simply lack the political experience to succeed.
Since Saakashvili became the President of Georgia, the relations between Sukhumi and Tbilisi have considerably worsened. So have the relations between Tbilisi and Moscow. As long as the situation remains as tense, the Abkhaz can count on the Russian help.
There is a theoretical possibility that Russia can give up Abkhazia for major concessions from Georgia. For instance, if Georgia abandons its plans to join the NATO, declares intention to enter into some close relations with Russia, or snubs the West, Russia would certainly reconsider its position with regard to Georgia’s breakaway regions. At least in theory.
On the other hand, if the relations are as dismal as they are now, the Abkhaz don’t have to fear such a possibility. So that is why Saakashvili is a good candidate for them. A little disappointing I would say, because the Abkhaz have consistently stated that its impossible to have a dialogue with Saakashvili’s team. Why not want a different leadership then?
The negotiations between Serbia and Kosovo finished yesterday. As expected, there was no agreement on Kosovo’s status. The West and Russia are heading towards a major collision.
Russia is against the independence of Kosovo, citing the illegality of such a decision without Serbia’s consent. Russians have also made it clear that they would expect other unrecognized states to get the same “treatment”. Moreover, they warn of possible destabilization of the Balkans and other regions [read: Caucasus]:
I am positive that such steps will trigger a chain reaction in the Balkans and other regions. Everyone who has such plans must be fully aware of their responsibility,” Lavrov [Russia’s Minister of Foreign Affairs] said.
Surely, Russians would be the ones to light the match. For instance, following Kosovo’s declaration of independence, Russia could move to recognize Georgia’s Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Georgians, who have plenty of problems without Kosovo, may take similarly dangerous steps.
Georgia’s ex-president (he had to step down to run for 2nd term) Saakashvili has blatantly promised to gain control over both Abkhazia and South Ossetia within months. There is no doubt what he meant.
The Abkhaz are already taking measures - additional troops have been thrown to the administrative border with Georgia. Some reports claim Russian peacekeepers have increased their military capabilities as well.
If anything happens indeed, the region is destined to be thrown 10 years back, without the likelihood of resolving the issues at hand.
I am posting this video once again. I think this a worthwhile pick into the problems facing Georgians and Abkhaz - on an individual level and devoid of political manifests.
