Steady State

Between NATO and Georgia’s conflicts

March 27th, 2008 by jibs

The NATO Bucharest Summit is less than a week away. Georgia hopes to clinch the official invitation into the military alliance, which would help it  resolve territorial conflicts, protect sovereignty and put on the path to join the European Union.

Georgia’s uneasy neighbor Russia, however, does not understand why a military alliance is enlarging to its borders. In addition, Russia points to the frozen conflicts, arguing that Abkhazians and South Ossetians do not want to join the alliance.

Russia’s second argument has found sympathy in the old European part of the NATO club. Most notably, Germany and France oppose Georgia’s invitation to membership citing troubles with the breakaway regions. Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel spelled it out for the Georgians: “countries that have unresolved conflicts cannot become members.”

Despite Germany’s pessimism, the NATO representatives claim that negotiations on this topic are ongoing among the members of the NATO alliance. Reportedly, there are two sets of documents printed for the summit in Bucharest: one envisioning “deeper cooperation with Georgia” and the other one with Membership Act Plan.

In short, there is no definite answer at the moment.

There are however a few unpromising pointers: first, Russia’s leader Vladimir Putin will be attending the summit and it is unlikely that he is going there to applaud to Georgia’s membership invitation. Second, on April 6, right after the Bucharest summit, US president Bush and Putin will hold talks in Russia’s Sochi — and it is unlikely they will praise each-other on Georgia’s successful step towards NATO. And lastly, the NATO countries remember the November events in Georgia, which are seen as a “hiccup” for “democracy” — Georgia has a long way to go to be seriously considered “Beacon of Democracy”.

What about Georgia’s separatist regions?

In fact they would benefit from NATO’s expansion: if Georgia does get a Membership Act Plan, that will mean that Russia might take steps to recognize their independence. Also, with Georgia in the NATO, the resumption of open warfare will be less likely to take place as Georgia’s hands would be tied. And lastly, the separatist regions would more likely compromise with Georgia if it joins the NATO block.

On the darker side, Russia might just flock those regions with weapons to take preventative measures against NATO’s proximity. Also, in contradiction to the speculation on improvement of state of affairs mentioned above, Russia could move to increase its control over Georgia’s breakaway republics and prevent them from striking any kind of deal with the Georgians. This is what Russia’s ambassador to NATO predicts: “the real secession of Abkhazia and South Ossetia”.

Bookmark to: