Both breakaway leaders — Kokoiti (South Ossetia) and Bagapsh (Abkhazia) — were in Duma gleefully applauding their “historical date”, which of course, might not be such a great date if Putin/Medvedev duet doesn’t act on this recommendation. (Probably it was their idea to have Duma come up with such a recommendation in this first place).

I still don’t see how this helps Russia at all — they have their own “peoples” who would not refuse independence at some point. “If they can have independence, we should be able to have it too” argument is a strong one, especially in ethnically diverse places like Russian Caucasus. 

Also, Russia would lose ways to blackmail/coerce Georgia to act on Russia’s idiosyncratic wishes and stay away from NATO. Not to mention that relations with Georgia will never improve…

At the same time, Russia could be on its way to realizing plan B — according to which they care less what the Georgians think of them; they recognize those statelets adn draw a new cold war front line along the borders of those new statelets.

This would transform Georgia into some sort of a battlefield — Georgia being the Western proxy, while Abkhaz and Ossetians + Caucasians will guard “the Russian democracy” from the North. Would be better if the cold war enthusiast find a better place for their schemes and Russia protects its citizens on its own internationally recognized borders, which are rather vast…

In the meantime, Russia would have to search thoroughly for friends who would also recognize Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Hard to believe that this will really take place… They can’t just do that, or can they?

Technorati tags: abkhazia, south ossetia, Russia and Georgia

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Since then, Russia has repeatedly tried to diminish its part in mobilizing the Abkhaz and South Ossetians against the Georgians. Recurring evidence of Russia’s involvement in the conflict was attributed to unfounded claims and propaganda aimed at smoldering its reputation as a peacekeeper.

Peacemakers Russians became — by stationing own troops on the Georgian territory, ornamented with blue helmets — a claim made to emulate peacekeeping forces.

Over the last decade, Russia has been meddling in Georgia’s affairs in all possible ways — by supporting the separatist claims, by intruding into internationally defined borders, dropping bombs, etc. all while saying there was no evidence to prove this.

Finally, Russians now agree that indeed it is their tanks on the Georgian territory — protecting interests of their citizens in South Ossetia.

But is it really what Russia is doing in Georgia now?

Russia motivates incursion into Georgia by claiming to protect Ossetians. South Ossetians became Russian citizens after they were handed out passports without consulting anyone’s opinion on this. Basically, Russia produced citizens by giving them a piece of paper and now sees it fit to protect them. Paradoxically, not long ago Russia conducted an operation to protect its citizens in Chechnya — mainly by leveling Chechen cities to the ground.

If Russia indeed cared about a situation where 70,000 of its citizens were left on the territory of another country — where also luckily they have the mandate to bring peace and stability — they would be motivated to resolve these conflicts!

Instead, in reality the breakaway leadership is supported and even encouraged by Russia to remain as “frozen conflicts” within the Georgian state. Russia is the guarantor that this will continue forever.

There is a different logic beyond rhetoric — Russia sees those “citizens” as a leverage over Georgia, a country that has plans to move towards Europe and seek protection from NATO — as both paths promise better future and certainty that NATO won’t be interested in cutting pieces of Georgian territory. For Russia this is unacceptable, as it damages its real interests — its influence in the Caucasus region.

This is what is at hand — political and economic influence in the region which serves as a transit for energy resources flowing to Europe. And these territorial conflicts serve as a guarantee that Russia will be present when crucial decisions  are made.

If this is so — then Russia is throwing a challenge to the Western world by physically attacking an independent country. If Russia and the West have issues, Russia should not be making those heard by destroying welfare of Georgians. Georgia is not some sort of a test ground… Russia is wrong to do this.

Why attack Georgia?

Russia is fed up with being a secondary power. It is a reemerging, revisionist Empire which sees its demotion from the super power status just 20 years ago “the biggest geopolitical catastrophe of the century.”

In essence, this “roar” is clearly a bang on the table that Russia has had enough with the West’s encroachment on its influence. Just compare the almighty Soviet Union that controlled half of Europe to today’s Russia — which “gave up” Yugoslavia, its Soviet Republics and many other strongholds of Soviet mentality. It has too stood haplessly watching how USA engages into regions where Russia too would want to have a say. — Or at least that’s how the Russian leadership appears to analyze matters…

Add to that those “backstabbing and ungrateful” Georgians and you get a receipt for a military resolution.

Why backstabbing and ungrateful? — Because many Russians, and certainly those in Kremlin, believe that centuries ago Russia saved Georgians from a complete annihilation by the Muslims. They also point out that Georgia has done very well sucking funds from the central planners in the times of the Soviet Union, while contributing back a fraction of investments they received. From those Russians’ point of view, it was also thanks to them that Georgia had Abkhazia and South Ossetia in the first place.

Now that Georgia is striving to leave Russia’s orbit, they are not only upset, but also motivated to undo those “great” things they have done for Georgia.

There is also an element of Georgian leadership’s arrogance: while Russian funds pop up during major privatization deals in Georgia, Georgia’s president Mikhail Saakashvili is using every opportunity to call Russia names… He has come to represent everything they don’t like about Georgians (although it is questionable if they would be happy to see him step down).

Two years ago, Russia took revenge by cutting transport, trade and postal links with Georgia. Many ethnic Georgians living in Russia became subject of harassment and even deportations.

Since that did not serve as a cold shower to Georgians, or didn’t make them “crawl back on their knees” towards Russia (an image many Russian nationalists like to entertain), there had to be another plan — a military action which would throw Georgia back a few years, possibly make it lose more territories, derail its plans of joining NATO and overall attain back the image of an unstable country it was in the 1990s.

With all the repercussion that await Russia for invading an independent state, they might too succeed with their agenda. Only partially. Military aggression against Georgia has put a fullstop to that “crawling back on the knees” image. It showed that Russia is not even interested in being the big brother — but rather a villain, who drops bombs if its idiosyncrasies are opposed.

As of other goals, it depends how the West is going to rescue its ally Georgia. It depends on what their stance will be with regard to Georgia’s NATO hopes — leaving them out can only mean bowing to Russia’s will and giving it upper hand to attack Georgia again.

What about Georgians?

Anyone sympathetic to Russian invasion of Georgia will say — but what about the fact that Georgia launched an all out attack against the small South Ossetians?

What the Georgian leadership has done, is clearly wrong. They have played into a trap — which caused a great pain and suffering to many Georgians. Tens of thousands of people have fled their homes from the advancing Russian forces accompanied by their South Ossetian proxies.

Time is not right at the moment to analyze why the Georgian leadership took steps that backfired to overblown proportions. They will have to face very tough questions — which, unlike their usual BS when opposed, they will have to answer. One thing is certain, there is little to celebrate right now… Georgian projects of reestablishing territorial integrity — such as capturing a Kodori Valley and naming it “upper Abkhazia” or inaugurating a pro-Georgian Ossetian administration in the conflict zone — bring to doubt effectiveness and overall will to convince Abkhaz and South Ossetians to participate within the Georgian state. In short, there are shortcomings and even blunders that Georgians have been pursuing for a few years now.

However, at the moment the most important to have Russians withdraw from the territory and have immediate humanitarian assistance brought to those who need it. Questions afterwards…

Actually, Russia does a huge favor to their arch enemy Saakashvili by musing on his removal during the Security Council sessions — this is actually paving the way of him remaining in charge for a very long time.

Destruction…

The biggest losers in this conflict are undoubtedly those who have lost their close ones and their homes. Those 50 thousand Georgians who fled South Ossetia are not very likely to return any time soon. Russia is already playing a role of a consistent and just peacemaker — if the Yugoslav refugees (Serbs) have not been able to return to their homes, then why should Georgians? (frankly, Russian parallels are becoming annoying, mostly because there is always a clearer parallel that can be found inside Russia proper, or their foreign policy stance).

While Russian soldiers were capturing Georgian towns in an attempt “to ensure peace”, their Ossetian allies together with other mercenaries from the Caucasus have pillaged, looted and stolen everything of value on their way. Reports of torture and rape are coming from beyond the Russian controlled territories. (for video evidence see here)

Russian soldiers are destroying Georgian military bases, hauling away cars, motor boats, blowing up bridges (incredibly, denying doing this) and even torching the forests. They have also broken their promise to immediate withdrawal — alleging the Georgians have not been following on the agreement either. It is probably further pillage that stops them.

It is ironic that Russia is enforcing peace by allowing it’s “citizens” to pillage anything they like. They resemble more drunken thugs, than a professional army with a code of conduct and discipline. That should positively contribute to their dreams of reestablishing themselves as a super power.

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Georgia never wanted the war. We are punished for our aspiration to become part of democratic world. Today our choice for the West is threatened.  Russian aggression is a challenge to the international community as well.

We, the civil society organizations of Georgia call for:

World democratic community to take quick and effective measures to stop Russian intervention;

Armed forces of Russian Federation to leave immediately territory of Georgia.

Every minute is critical for the lives of innocent civilians in Georgia.

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There are however serious shortcomings. A word or two on what Georgia’s leadership thinks of the quality of democracy:

Take the only independent TV channel in the country: Kavkasia TV that broadcasts only in the capital — a clearly pro-opposition channel. Although open to the authorities’ participation in frequent political debates, invitations usually remain unanswered.

Recently the management of the TV station (a handful of workers all together), have complained that the authorities pressure the businesses to withdraw advertisements so as to choke the channel financially. Georgia’s Public Defender Sozar Subari, too, has alleged that the authorities are working to undermine the channel — but unlike killing off the Imedi TV using SWAT forces a few months ago, Kavkasia TV is targeted in a less obvious way.

Here comes the part with democracy: the journalist of Kavkasia TV was able to ask president Saakashvili himself on why authorities are trying to shut down the channel, which surprised the president:

What kind of problems? What kind of problems does the Kavkasia TV in particular face?… all the illusions about restriction of freedom of expression or as if there was some tabooed issues, have disappeared… We have no experience of democracy culture and we should work much over it.

In other words, problems with the Kavkasia TV and in general, media in Georgia, have something to do with the culture of democracy… Not very clear, but, fine… young democracy in it’s baby steps is sure to have problems with media — although, it would be hard to find similar “problems” with media in the Eastern Europe. Anyways — a few weeks later, Saakashvili backtracked on his critical remarks about the democracy he is building himself, calling it Georgia’s main “wealth“:

The fact that the Georgian people managed to hold two elections democratically, the fact that the Georgian people managed to overcome the crisis in a dignified manner, gives us today our major weapon for protection; our major weapon is not tanks and cannons – we can not compare in this regard with those people who threaten us – our major weapon is that we are a democratic and successful state.

Therefore, Georgia’s main weapon against the ill-wishers is democracy; just it lacks culture. Interestingly, other officials within the Georgian administration see problems the country faces externally through the lenses of democracy’s ideological struggle with authoritarianism and dictatorship — take Nika Rurua, deputy chairman of the parliamentary Defense and Security Committee, explaining Russia’s aggressive stance towards Georgia:

Russia remains a country that is afraid to have free and democratic states as its neighbors. And, in fact, what is suitable for the entire civilized, free world, is not suitable for Russia. Progressive countries of the world see NATO expansion as an expansion of democracy, free space, transparent and open societies. Russia is afraid of this.

(more…)

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Burjanadze established a foundation that in theory aims to help the Georgian democracy develop, thrive, prosper, propel and vive. In short, she seeks to re-establish her presence and articulate her motivations in a way that would be more meaningful than being some else’s spokesperson or a secretary.

A bit harsh, but let’s face it: although once a leader of the Rose Revolution 4 years ago, Nino Burjanadze has repeatedly failed to gain ground within the authorities’ power echelons.

Although a soft spoken intellectual and an able debater, Burjanadze has failed overall to make a personal impact. Take this for example: [let’s pretend the parliamentary elections in Georgia were carried out without major violations]: Burjanadze left the ruling party just before the parliamentary elections and still her former party gained more than 80% as a result! 

Once the “iron lady”, Burjanadze seeks to use her “foundation” to squeeze into big politics in the future.  She even went as far as saying that “Georgians cannot be happy with the level of democracy in Georgia”, almost forgetting that she herself was the co-creator of the same democracy she criticizes now.

But, to be fair, changes in politics come from the most unexpected places: take the former defense minister Irakli Okruashvili — an avid National Movement member in the past and now turned critic of his former boss Saakashvili — is an example of how things can turn upside-down.

Most probably, Georgia’s western friends need to see a viable political opposition there. The entire political standoff over the last few months has shown many shortcomings in the once “beacon of democracy” — and more importantly, it has made it obvious that there is lack of a viable alternative to Saakashvili’s government. [For why, refer to the oppositions’ chronicles of screw ups and extraordinary anti-team work throughout the months’ long crisis].

So, this is the niche the “wanna-be iron lady” wishes to occupy. Best of luck to her. Although, before she even unveiled her gradual roadmap towards re-grabbing some power bits and pieces, a curious event was reported in the press: for her service to “the Georgian people”, Saakashvili personally signed an order to award Nino with property valued at several million $$$.

The future wanna-be opposition leader gladly accepted the gift, pretending there was absolutely nothing wrong with taking a practical bribe and a future prospect for controversy (if needed, of course). [kviris palitra, July 11].

So, yeah, best of luck to her… Maybe Burjanadze’s foundation can contribute to development of democracy in Georgia more effectively than she did during her tenure as the second person in the government.

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A few days ago, the Georgian special forces showed some skills of “adequately reacting” to one of those “provocations”:

Georgian nationwide TV stations – Rustavi 2 TV, Mze TV and public TV - aired footage on June 17 showing several plain clothes Georgian security officers and several patrol policemen dragging two Russian peacekeepers from their truck, forcing them to lie on the ground, swearing at them and then pushing them into police cars. 

There were other episodes in the past when the Russian peacekeepers were handled roughly in front of the TV cameras. It is always an interesting coincidence just how those journalists appear at the right place and at the right time (usually in the middle of nowhere or near some village close to conflict zones). Maybe the Rustavi 2 journalists camp around the area to catch a glimpse of action or maybe they are invited in advance.

In any case. If there is an interaction between Georgians, Abkhaz, South Ossetians and Russians, it is likely to have a negative connotation like incident, provocation, warning, lost drones, etc. If there were any real moves to actually resolve the conflicts, different events would come under public scrutiny. This shows just how Georgia does not have any meaningful strategy to resolve these issues outside the usual format of protesting the infringement of territorial integrity or getting “friends” to react to Russia’s dangerous moves.

So what is the plan? Some thoughts on the ‘to do list’:

• Portray the Russian peacekeepers as a source of instability.
• Get peacekeepers from a more neutral side to patrol the conflict zones.
• Remind the western countries that in case of war they would have to deal with it somehow.
• Find more allies who would condemn Russia’s moves on regular basis.
• Show the separatists they are messing with the wrong guys.
• Use the tensions in the conflict zones to discredit the domestic opposition (very helpful during the elections). Ex: why don’t you protest in front of the Russian embassy instead of the Georgian parliament? Or, we are practically at war, and you are discrediting our international image.
• Promise the impossible.
• (more?)

Actually resolving the issues with the Abkhaz and South Ossetians is not really a top priority. At least it must be a well hidden one. “Russia’s hand” behind things is good and complex enough to deal with…

So how will conflicts be resolved this way?

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The international organizations observing the elections, of course, noticed progress, albeit “uneven implementation” of previous recommendations. Some careful diplomatic jumba-jamba, some pretending not to have seen things, and Georgia is a democracy — in a special category. Other countries praised Georgia for conducting the elections in a peaceful manner(?). It could mean, for example, no acts of cannibalism took place at the polling stations.

As a result, the champions of Rose Revolution — an event symbolizing the “real” democratic revolution in the country — are proudly representing the bribed, blackmailed or intimidated populations’ interest with well over 80% in the parliament. What does the “population” know about the country’s interests?

Protests, mass demonstrations, hunger strikes did not help. With a stroke of good luck and “surprising support form the population” things just turned out the right way for the authorities.

In the meantime, US department noted “lack of credible opposition” in Georgia. During both elections in Georgia, unprecedented number of people demonstrated against the authorities. During the presidential elections marred with “irregularities”, the opposition candidates together got a little less than 50% of votes.

Yet, there is no credible opposition — maybe finding one would help… what a coincidence — the former parliament chairwoman and ruling party guru Nino Burjanadze is establishing a “Democracy Foundation”. Maybe she could be the credible, constructive and cooperative opposition (at least in public, for the democracy’s sake).

… And you get a democracy decorated with opposition, parliament and even media. Success story.

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Needless to say, the bi-weekly evening show attracts a lot of interest. Recently it has been announced that the show will not broadcast for at least a month, as the European football championship broadcasts will be in time conflict with the show. Of course, no other times were found to air the program — that would mess up the whole soap opera schedule.

Georgia’s public defender Sozar Subari has evaluated media trends as “grave”, saying that besides one or two exceptions, there is no free electronic media in Georgia.

Overall, media freedom has been steadily declining since the pro-Western-educated-lawyer (ironic title) Mikheil Saakashvili gained power through peaceful regime change in 2003 – the event trendily coined as “Rose Revolution”. Many TV stations were either shut down or brought under government control. Such are today’s major TV stations Rustavi 2 – former “peoples’ television” and spearhead of the Rose revolution, Mze and Public Broadcaster.

Last November, Special Forces shut down Imedi TV during live broadcast. The television station has been in center of controversy ever since and due to shady reasons (likely the authorities) has transformed into an entertainment portal.

Georgian newspapers and Internet media are more or less free. For how long, that’s another question.

Free media is fundamental to democracy – it provides checks and balances that are essential for responsible governance. Without this, abuse of power is inevitable.

Controlled Georgian media tends to disseminate propaganda and eschew facts about the conflict zones in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. During the elections, the “incidents in the conflict zones” got a thorough coverage. Usually, the journalists appear in the most unlikely situations — take Khurcha incident, where peaceful Georgian voters were supposedly fired upon by the Abkhaz militias: the journalists were on the spot awaiting to interview the crowd when the shooting broke out. Isn’t that lucky? Or, when Russian peacekeepers were detained drunk driving — the journalists were there to catch the Georgian Special Forces drag out the Russian peacekeeper from the vehicle. There are many other instances.

(more…)

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For more information: http://www.lostcolony.nl

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Human Right Center in Georgia ran a report on this incident and raised disturbing questions regarding the authenticity of “separatists attempting to kill Georgians” who wanted to participate in the elections. Read the report here.

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