nEUrosis

New No for Netherlands?

July 10th, 2007 by Pim de Kuijer

My friend ideoblogue asked me yesterday whether I thought The Netherlands would have another referendum on the new European treaty, and if so, what the outcome would be. Here, for all those interested, my two pennies’ worth.

So, both of you, be warned. This is going to be an exercise in Dutch Parliamentary tradition. In short (!) the decision on a referendum has to be taken by the Dutch coalition government, which consists of Christian-Democrats, Social-Democrats and the small but important Christian Union. They are however waiting for advice on the matter from the Council of State, a sui generis institution whose titular head is, believe it or not, the Queen. Who is also head of the government. So she is in fact advising herself on what decision to take.

Anyway, the Council is expected to advise against a referendum, because the treaty is stripped of most of it’s ‘constitutional’ elements. Not that it really matters, because in reality the government has already decided. In the ‘ coalition agreement’, the basis for the cooperation between the government parties, a referendum has already been ruled out!

Complicated, you say? But we haven’t even started yet! So the government will most likely say no to a new referendum, thereby all but insuring the ratification of the new treaty in The Netherlands. Or so it would seem. Because the Social-Democratic party, although bound by the coalition agreement, is split on the issue of a referendum. It is very possible that they will side with other parties in the Second (lower) Chamber of Parliament, to create a temporary initiative law calling for a referendum, thereby overruling their own ministers in the cabinet. This initiative procedure is how the previous referendum came about.

So there will be a referendum after all? Eh, not quite. Because this law has to pass through the First Chamber of Parliament, the Senate. And in the Senate, unlike in the Second Chamber, opponents of a referendum are in the majority. So, all in all, a new referendum seems, perhaps not impossible, but at least mathematically highly improbable.

Lost me? Good. Then at least I succeeded in demonstrating one big flaw of the new treaty. Giving more power to national parliaments is not the good idea it might seem at first sight. Can you imagine trying to figure out the parliamentary procedures of 25 or more member states? For what it’s worth, give me Brussels any day. Perhaps less democratic, but a hell of a lot easier to understand. And that’s saying something.

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