Elections = external tensions
April 30th, 2008 by jibs
If there are elections in Georgia, you may bet some major scandal will take place with Russia — most probably over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia or South Ossetia.
There was a spy scandal before the elections in 2006; then there was President Saakashvili’s brave intervention in a brawl in Gunmukhuri camp and finally now there is the downing of the Georgian drone and Russia’s decision to legalize ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia.
With regards to the latest conflict, it is suspicious why the international community (basically some of the heavyweight countries) did not comprehensively respond to the drone downing incident. If Georgia is being trumped on, then why not call facts their own names? “Allegations” or “presumptions” of Russia shooting down the plane are simply not good enough: in the 21st century it is possible to determine who used military force — therefore, it is unclear why the reaction has been muted.
Also, Russia chose to legalize its ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in a very precarious time — exactly when Georgia is having crucial parliamentary elections. Why couldn’t the “malicious Russians” wait for a month and unfold their intentions after the elections in Georgia — especially that they are supposed to hate Saakashvili? In other words, Russia’s actions are paving way for Saakashvili’s victory in the parliamentary elections through giving credibility to the “external threat” argument.
It is also strange that amidst the allegations of election fraud during the presidential elections this January, Russia’s president Putin was among the first to congratulate Saakashvili with the re-election. It is suspicious when the arch enemy is glad that hated Saakashvili is re-elected.
It is not to say of course that Russian and Georgian authorities somehow act in accord. No, far from that. Just that Russians are consistently aggressive and if they wanted to see Saakashvili leave Georgia, they would not pitch him the major international incidents right before the elections.
The international observer missions such OSCE also behave rather odd: the OSCE report on the presidential elections this January dubbed the outcome as “widely in line with the democratic standards”, but noted violations that were simply outrageous and in fact cast doubt on fairness of the election outcome.
It looks like all the interested actors in the region want to keep the situation under control: while Europeans suspect Saakashvili of authoritarianism, the Americans think Georgia is a young democracy and a few violations here and there can be overlooked. The Russians on the other hand, have learnt how to deal with Saakashvili’s over-populistic style of governance and therefore know what to expect from his seemingly “dangerous” initiatives.
In this sense, the whole Russian threat scare will evaporate once the elections are over in Georgia. The elections will be dubbed “essentially democratic” by the international observers, although the report will overlook all the violations that helped Saakashvili’s party gain above 50% in the parliament.
The opposition will rally with demands to recount the vote but after wasting everyones’ time, energy and money — they will too settle down. So the balance of power will remain unchanged and everyone will continue pinning its desired vision on Georgia’s development towards a democratic state.
jibs Says
During the Presidential elections in January:
“I hope we will be able to resume dialogue [with Russia] to normalize ties,” Saakashvili said on a Rustavi 2 TV talk-show on January 8. “You may notice that during my election campaign I never actually spoke about Russia – even though we have many problems [with Russia] – I refused to use that card, knowing even that it could have been a major vote catcher. Why? Because it was the responsible thing to do; it is also a sensitive issue for them [the Russians], as Georgia is a very important country for Russia… We will invite the Russian president [Vladimir Putin] to the inauguration and we will try to start relations from a blank page; it is our duty to build these relations and to, at least, remove hindering factors in our relations.”
Saakashvili’s conciliatory remarks were in marked contrast to his position following the police dispersal of anti-government demonstrators in Tbilisi on Novemebr 7. Saakashvili then accused Russia of masterminding the unrest and expelled three Russian diplomats from Georgia. “We have incontrovertible evidence that these people played a major role in [recent developments in Georgia]. It was planned there [Russia], financed from there and implemented through the help of their friendly oligarch [Badri Patarkatsishvili],” Saakashvili said on November 7.
Notice what now is the position:
President Saakashvili said on May 3: “One part of Georgia is today under the occupation of one of the biggest aggressors.”
Speaking at his ruling party’s congress in Tbilisi, Saakashvili did not name any country, but Georgian officials have been referring to extra Russian troops in breakaway Abkhazia as “aggressors.”
Saakashvili also said that Georgia’s major goal was “to establish peace.”
“Everything that we have accomplished recently, we’ve done it through peace,” he continued. “Everything that we will achieve in the future, we will do that through peace. Everything that we have done confirmed that our country belongs to every ethnic group [living in Georgia]. This peace needs to be protected and to its protection needs unity. It will be impossible to defeat Georgia if it has international support and if there is unity within the country.”
Saakashvili should send a thank you note to Putin for helping his party win the elections — given that it does — and of course it will — a few irregularities here and there and the victory is in the sack.
May 4th, 2008 at 10:19 am