If there are elections in Georgia, you may bet some major scandal will take place with Russia — most probably over the breakaway regions of Abkhazia or South Ossetia.
With regards to the latest conflict, it is suspicious why the international community (basically some of the heavyweight countries) did not comprehensively respond to the drone downing incident. If Georgia is being trumped on, then why not call facts their own names? “Allegations” or “presumptions” of Russia shooting down the plane are simply not good enough: in the 21st century it is possible to determine who used military force — therefore, it is unclear why the reaction has been muted.
Also, Russia chose to legalize its ties with Abkhazia and South Ossetia in a very precarious time — exactly when Georgia is having crucial parliamentary elections. Why couldn’t the “malicious Russians” wait for a month and unfold their intentions after the elections in Georgia — especially that they are supposed to hate Saakashvili? In other words, Russia’s actions are paving way for Saakashvili’s victory in the parliamentary elections through giving credibility to the “external threat” argument.
It is also strange that amidst the allegations of election fraud during the presidential elections this January, Russia’s president Putin was among the first to congratulate Saakashvili with the re-election. It is suspicious when the arch enemy is glad that hated Saakashvili is re-elected.
It is not to say of course that Russian and Georgian authorities somehow act in accord. No, far from that. Just that Russians are consistently aggressive and if they wanted to see Saakashvili leave Georgia, they would not pitch him the major international incidents right before the elections.
The international observer missions such OSCE also behave rather odd: the OSCE report on the presidential elections this January dubbed the outcome as “widely in line with the democratic standards”, but noted violations that were simply outrageous and in fact cast doubt on fairness of the election outcome.
It looks like all the interested actors in the region want to keep the situation under control: while Europeans suspect Saakashvili of authoritarianism, the Americans think Georgia is a young democracy and a few violations here and there can be overlooked. The Russians on the other hand, have learnt how to deal with Saakashvili’s over-populistic style of governance and therefore know what to expect from his seemingly “dangerous” initiatives.
It’s amazing how all of a sudden an arch enemy can become a traditional partner. Over the last four years, relations between Georgia and Russia have arguably been worse than in the beginning of 90s when Russia was widely perceived supporting Georgia’s separatist regions.
There have been many low points between Russia and Georgia as of late. Some were motivated by personality clashes, some were of geopolitical character. At times it seemed that relations would only continue to sour (if they could), but, out of blue things seem to have improved. Prime News reports on the recent meeting between Saakashvili and Putin :
According to him [Davit Bakradze, Georgia’s Foreign Minister], as a result of an agreement between the presidents, direct air traffic between Russia and Georgia will be resumed from the second half of March. Besides, Georgian and Russian economic experts will start discussion of issues referring resumption of export of Georgian agricultural products on the Russian markets.
Bakradze informed that resumption of postal communication and lifting of visa restrictions were discussed as well.
It is unclear weather “discussion on resumption” on some progress means actual agreement. But, at least the conversation took place.
What is some surprising is that Tbilisi claims that Russia has in principle agreed to have Georgians patrol the checkpoints on Abkhazian and South Ossetian borders with Russia. In exchange, Georgians would give green light to Russia’s entry into WTO.
Tbilisi’s demand to control the checkpoints has been bluntly brushed off by Moscow in past. “What does Russia’s entry in WTO has anything to do with the checkpoints in Abkhazia” — they said. Now, if one believes the Georgian side, this has been agreed in principle.
The Abkhaz and South Ossetian sides have called this “breakthrough” sham as nothing has been agreed with them. Time will show if anything actual was agreed, but at this point it looks fishy. Hopefully it doesn’t turn out that Georgians agree to Russia’s entry into WTO only later to find out this was all just a misunderstanding.
Georgian Public Broadcast Television airs the conversations between the opposition members and the Russian diplomats (spies).
Allegedly Levan Berdzenishvili, Koko Gamsakhurdia, Goga Khaindrava and Shalva Natelashvili have been cooperating with the Russian special services for years now.
The accusations against each opposition member were given “commensurate” evaluation by leaders of the ruling party Goga Bokeria and Givi Targamadze.
The opposition members were given the opportunity to respond, but their responses were heavily edited.
A big part of the news concentrated on the Sochi Winter Olympics 2014 meeting where Moscow Mayor Luzhkov who called on his colleagues to invest into Abkhazia. Comments followed by the head of the Parliament’s commission on the territorial integrity stating that the Russians, after failing to overthrow the Georgian authorities, are now trying to annex South Ossetia and Abkhazia.
The news appeared more than biased, almost a parody without humor.
It would be so cool to have only this channel, would be no need to think anymore.
The political standoff between the authorities and the opposition was “resolved” by dispersing the protesting crowd, clamp down on independent media and suspension of the right to demonstrate.
These moves by the authorities were justified due to “an attempt to conduct a coup” by “high ranking Russian special services”.
The timing of this crisis is bad.
Georgia hopes to get Membership Act Plan at the NATO summit in Bucharest this April. This is hardly conceivable now.
Kosovo will most probably gain independence sometime during December or January. Russia wants the conflicts in Georgia’s breakaway regions of Abkhazia and South Ossetia to be resolved in a similar manner.
Russia should refrain from applying the “Kosovo precedent” to Georgia’s separatist regions, especially when things in Georgia are far from calm. The reaction would be severe.
A major destabilization could take place in the region.
If Russia ever wants to have normal relations with Georgia, or even have influence in the Caucasus, it must stop from drumming up the Kosovo precedent. Not now, not when Georgia is in turmoil.
Many commentators have said that Russia bluffing over Kosovo and that in reality it does not have plans to recognize any of the conflicts in the former Soviet Union region. I hope this is true.
Russia’s moral stand, its long-term goals, its relation to the Georgian people, its interest in the Caucasus will be tested these coming months. Georgia is not Saakashvili’s regime, and Kosovo is not Abkhazia - Russia must understand this.
The relations between Russia and Georgia are abominable at the moment. But there will be improvement, if not under the current regimes, then after these regimes change.
Applying Kosovo formula to Abkhazia now would cut this prospect forever and may cause a war, especially that current Georgian regime has considerably weakened and has a huge army.
Within a five minute session, the UN Security Council passed a resolution on the Georgian-Abkhaz conflict and extended the peacekeeping mandate for the UNOMIG for another 6 months.
All sides expressed satisfaction with the resolution. One might think this is impossible, given the latest spats, incidents and war of words between the opposing sides, but, everyone seems to be *happy* with the resolution.
Georgia’s President, Mikheil Saakashvili evaluated this resolution as a “diplomatic breakthrough”, despite his earlier call to adopt “a comprehensive review of all aspects of the peace process” in his speech to the UN General Assembly.
The “diplomatic breakthrough” must have been the “reaffirmation” of
…the importance of such people’s [internally displaced persons’] return to their homes and property and that individual property rights have not been affected by the fact that owners had to flee during the conflict and that the residency rights and the identity of those owners will be respected.
“The conflict in Georgia between Mikhail Saakashvili and opposition shows that Russia’s role in former Soviet republics is still in decline” - thinks Alexey Makarkin, deputy director of the Center for Political Technologies. One can hardly disagree with this statement.
What was Russia’s response to the brewing crisis in Georgia? A mocking statement adopted by Duma on the state of democracy in Georgia and a few chilly remarks by Russia’s President Vladimir Putin. But it’s clear that Russia has nothing to gain from Georgia’s internal conflict except for a fringe bonus points of finger-pointing at the hypocrisy surrounding Georgia’s pro-Western ambitions.
True, the statements made by the former Defense Minister Irakli Okruashvili suggest that not everything is as rosy in Georgia as the current administration would want others to believe. But before jumping to conclusions, a foreign country should refrain from involvement into the domestic affairs of another country, especially that evidence backing the accusations against the authorities is yet to be disclosed.
Say, the Georgian opposition does capitalize on the recent gains and miraculously, the currently jailed Okruashvili becomes Georgia’s next leader. Joy from Saakashvili’s departure would immediately be tainted with concerns about an even more radical Okruashvili, whose “anti-Russian” stance is no secret to Moscow.
